金投网

better-than-expected quarter

  中国生物制药(01177)   SBP reported revenue/core EPS of HKD4.3bn/0.07 in 3Q16, representing YoYgrowth of 7%/4% on a reported basis, or 13%/10% on a constant RMB basis,respectively. The better-than-expected results were primarily driven by 21%YoY organic growth of Runzhong. We continue to expect growth to deceleratein 4Q due to the exit in Guangdong. However, we think that pricing andvolume pressure in the next few quarters are already reflected in consensus.Additionally, positive catalysts including potential NRDL inclusion of keyproducts and clinical updates should serve as the key stock’s drivers in thecoming quarters.   Solid growth delivered for Runzhong and Kaifen   In addition to Runzhong, we ascribe the strength in 3Q16 to growthacceleration of key drugs Yilunping, Tuotuo and Ganping, which exhibited20%/42%/6% organic growth in 3Q16, vs. 18%/37%/1% in 1H16. On RMBbasis, Runzhong, Ganmei, Kaishi, Kaifen, and Tiance delivered YoY growth of21%/-5%/-7%/36%/-8% in 3Q16, vs. 17%/1%/1%/18%/8% in 1H16. The growthdeceleration of several major products is ascribed to price erosion form drugtenders. We continue to expect growth moderation for flagship products, whilepotential NRDL inclusion of 9 drugs might mitigate part of the risks.   Margin improvement due to product mix   We highlight the top line strength was not achieved through increasedsales/marketing efforts, as two expense items reached 44.4% of sales in 3Q16,vs. 49.2% in 3Q15. GM improved to 80.0% in 3Q16 from 77.7% in 3Q15, drivenby a better product mix as new products accounted for 11.3% of sales in 3Q16vs. 8.8% in 3Q15. R&D expenses surged to 9.0% of sales in 3Q16 from 3.9% in3Q15. On YTD basis, R&D spending accounted for 12% of sales in 9m16 vs.10% in 9m15. We believe the increase is mainly due to several ongoing latestage trials and cost inflation resulted from regulatory policy changes.   Increasing target price to HKD6.5 from HKD6.2; risks   Our TP is based on 21x 2018E EPS vs. 20x we used previously due to sector rerating.We think it is justified as its peers are trading at 15x with 13% growth in2019E (vs. 16% for SBP). We believe SBP deserves a premium for the superior therapeutic value of its existing products, one of the strongest pipelines inChina, and imminent entry to the global market. Downside risks are price cutsand slow product ramp-up.
免责声明 金投网发布此信息目的在于传播更多信息,与本网站立场无关。金投网不保证该信息(包括但不限于文字、数据及图表)全部或者部分内容的准确性、真实性、完整性、有效性、及时性、原创性等。相关信息并未经过本网站证实,不对您构成任何投资建议,据此操作,风险自担。
代码 名称 最新价(港元) 涨幅
08161 医汇集团 0.43 43.33
00162 世纪金花 0.13 40.66
08316 柏荣集团控股 1.5 36.36
08166 中国农业生态 0.05 35.14
00524 E-KONG GROUP 0.24 33.33

港股频道HKSTOCK.CNGOLD.ORG