腾讯控股(00700)
3Q16 revenue beat; non-GAAP NI in line
Tencent announced its 3Q16 results: revenue wasRmb40.4bn (+52% YoY & +13% QoQ), 3.5% above Consensusthanks to the stellar growth of “other revenue” and socialnetworks’ better-than-expected performance; as we previewed,mobile game revenue increased but at sequential growth lessthan we expected (actual number of Rmb9.9bn vs. CICCe ofRmb10.5bn), and brand ads were slightly weak. Non-GAAP netprofit was in line, at +42% YoY to Rmb11.7bn.Trends to watchRevenue beat was led by “other revenue”, which mainlyconsists of payment and cloud, excluding theconsolidation effect. China Music Corp �C merged in 3Q16 �Ccontributed >Rmb800mn of revenue, of which ~Rmb700mn wasfrom social networking, the main driver of the upside surprise inrevenue growth. Excluding this, total 3Q revenue wasRmb39.6bn, only 1% above Consensus; this was fueled by thereacceleration of “other revenue”, which now contributes 12.3%of total revenue vs. just 3.3% a year ago.Video ad pressure to continue, offset by strong growth inperformance-based ads; market may still feeltemporarily disappointed. Brand ads only +9% QoQ in 3Q16,we estimate that the sequential growth was mainly driven bymobile news ads from video ads (flat QoQ), which also putspressure on ad GPM, given the rising video content costs. Wesense pressure for video ad growth over the long run, but seepositive signs from membership subscriptions. We expectTencent to generate Rmb2mn~2.5mn from video membershiprevenue in 2016 vs.
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