中国海外发展（00688） 　　On Nov 15 after market close, COLI (688.HK) announced the resignation of Hao Jian Min, Chairman and CEO. Mr. Xiao Xiao, the current Vice Chairman (aged 60; joined CSCEC in 1982), will succeed Hao to be the Chairman and CEO. COLIsays Mr. Hao has no disagreement with the Board and there is no matter relating to his resignation that needs to be bought to the attention of shareholders. This came as a surprise to the market, and we believe this could be a near-term negative to the stock as it could hinder: (1) the post-M&A integration with CITIC; (2) landbanking strategy under today’senvironment, and we think the management change has not ended yet. We maintain Neutral on the stock and prefer China Resources Land (1109.HK) and Vanke-H (2202.HK) among large caps. 　　Valuation 　　Our Jun-17 price target of HK$28 is based on an 8.5x P/E, which is 0.5 S.D. below the historical average. 　　Risks to Rating and Price Target 　　Key downside risks to our price target and rating include a demand shock caused by a substantial deterioration in the macro economy,more dilutive-than-expected asset injections and further Rmb depreciation against the USD. 　　Upside risks include stronger-than-expected sales, better-than-expected profitability from CITIC assets and more policy easing in cities where COLI is exposed to.