华润置地(01109)
What's new
CR Land released its 10M16 sales data: with ~90% of itsFY16 target now met, we expect it to be comfortably completed.
Comments
Core superiority: sustainable growth; lucrative margins.We forecast core earnings growth of +20%/18% YoY inFY16/17e; while profitability is also on track to improve with GPMholding up at ~32% while core NPM stays ~14% over 2016~17.These attributes are hard-won for players of such large caps.IP performance likely to beat market consensus. Whenthe effects of Rmb depreciation & VAT reform were adjusted,rental income growth rebounded to ~16% YoY in 1H16, whichwill be feasibly maintained for the whole year, in our view. Also,IP segment is estimated to contribute ~17% of total core NP,serving as a strong arm to the company’s valuation.No need to be over bearish on its SZ reserves, as:
SZ market still facing the most severe supplyshortage among tier-1 cities over 2016~20, accordingto our calculations.
Company does not overweight SZ market: for itsproperty development business, the GAV of SZ projects makeup ~20% of its GAV (attributable amount) for the segment.
Valuation and recommendation
Maintain earnings forecasts unchanged; reiterateConviction BUY rating and TP at HK$30.03 (12.2x 2016eP/E), implying 60% upside and a 7% discount to 2016e NAV. Thecompany is currently trading at 7.6x 2016e P/E.
Risks
Tier-1/-2 markets worse than expected; fierce competition of IPbusiness.
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