森源国际(03333)
What's new
Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Real Estate & Propertiesannounced on November 11 that it will continue its trading halt,due to the progress in the proposed acquisition of Evergrande’s(3333.HK, “the company”) 100% stake.
Comments
S-T catalyst to the company’s share price. If the acquisitionis successfully finished, the anticipated purchase premium wouldgrant some upside to the company’s share price.
FY17e: contracted sales Rmb450bn, +28.6% YoY,according to the promise the company made to the acquirer. Thecompany has achieved sales of Rmb316.7bn in 10M16,equivalent to 106% of its FY16 target. And we expect it to recordRmb350bn this year.
Core earnings: Rmb9.28bn/12.37bn in FY16e/17e, atcore NPM of 4.6%/4.8%, respectively. We estimate the topline of FY16e/17e to be Rmb200bn/258bn at the YoY growth of50%/29%.
Valuation and recommendation
Raise core NP of FY16e/17e by 4%/10% to Rmb9.28bn/12.37bndue to the strong sales. Maintain HOLD and raise TP by 8% toHK$6.03, at 7.8x 2016e P/E and 35% discount to 2016e NAV,implying 16% upside. The company now trades at 6.8x 2016eP/E.
Risks
The acquisition fails.
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